Managing Typhoon Related Crop Risk at WPC

Craig W. Tillman, Joel K. Sivillo, Sergei A. Frolov

WeatherPredict Consulting Inc.

Abstract:
Risk management of crop related exposures in coastal regions can be enhanced through a program of hazards modeling and real-time forecasting. As one component in the yield distribution of selected crops, typhoon-related hazards are a critical factor. Natural typhoon occurrence rates accentuate the extreme parts of the yield distribution, causing severe and correlated financial disruptions to invested interests. This paper outlines a suite of techniques focused on building a probabilistic understanding of crop risk from tropical cyclones. Several foundational technologies are discussed, including Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) of tropical cyclones; statistical consensus forecast models, such as the WeatherPredict Superensemble™; and the application of flood modeling techniques to typhoon landfall scenarios.

Keywords: Agricultural Risk; Typhoon Hazards; Typhoon Flooding; Numerical Weather Prediction; Crop Risk