Cycle Phases Identification and Influencing Factors of
Agricultural Commodity Price Cycle in China:
Evidence from Cereal Prices

WANG Jingjing, CHEN Yongfu, WANG Xiuqing,
ZHENG Xiaoping,ZHAO Jing

College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University

Abstract:
Agricultural commodity prices in China have gone through a huge fluctuation with the recent commodity boom and financial crisis in the world, which has revealed some special characteristics of cyclical change under China’s transitional economy. Firstly, this paper identifies cycle phases of price variation with Bry-Boschan algorithm based on the price data of cereals in China. Secondly, the impacting factors of the duration of price cycle are analyzed by using survival analysis models, and meanwhile an average length of cyclical change is also measured. Finally, some conclusions and remarks are given for policy makers in order to avoid the agricultural commodity price risk and improve agricultural early warning system.

Keywords: Identification; Cyclical change; Cereal prices; Survival analysis